An examination of determinants of fiscal sustainability in Nigeria: Evidence from public expenditure analyses in Lagos State (2000–2020).
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Background of the study:
Fiscal sustainability refers to the ability of a government to maintain its current spending, tax policies, and level of public debt without compromising long-term economic stability. In Lagos State, public expenditure analyses between 2000 and 2020 have provided insights into the challenges of achieving fiscal sustainability amid rapid economic and population growth (Adeniyi, 2023). Factors such as revenue generation, expenditure control, and debt management play critical roles in determining fiscal sustainability. While fiscal discipline has improved in some areas, issues including budget deficits, inefficient spending, and inadequate revenue mobilization continue to threaten long-term fiscal stability (Ibrahim, 2024). This study investigates the determinants that affect fiscal sustainability in Lagos State, analyzing expenditure patterns, policy frameworks, and institutional capacities. The objective is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how fiscal practices influence sustainability and to propose measures that can enhance the efficient management of public resources, ensuring that fiscal policies support economic stability and growth.
Statement of the problem:
Despite efforts to achieve fiscal sustainability, Lagos State continues to face challenges such as high budget deficits and inefficient public spending (Adeniyi, 2023; Ibrahim, 2024). These issues compromise the state’s long-term fiscal health and limit its ability to invest in critical public services. This study seeks to identify the key determinants that undermine fiscal sustainability and to propose strategies to improve fiscal management and resource allocation.
Objectives of the study:
- To identify determinants affecting fiscal sustainability in Lagos State.
- To analyze the impact of public expenditure on fiscal stability.
- To recommend measures for achieving long-term fiscal sustainability.
Research questions:
- What are the key determinants of fiscal sustainability in Lagos State?
- How does public expenditure affect fiscal stability?
- What policy measures can enhance fiscal sustainability?
Research Hypotheses:
- Efficient public expenditure management improves fiscal sustainability.
- Inadequate revenue mobilization undermines fiscal stability.
- Institutional reforms can enhance long-term fiscal sustainability.
Significance of the study:
This study is significant as it evaluates the determinants of fiscal sustainability in Lagos State, offering insights that are crucial for formulating policies to improve public financial management. The findings will help policymakers design effective strategies that ensure long-term economic stability and sustainable public investment (Ibrahim, 2024).
Scope and limitations of the study:
This study is limited to examining fiscal sustainability in Lagos State through the lens of public expenditure analysis, focusing on fiscal policies, revenue, and debt management.
Definitions of terms:
- Fiscal Sustainability: The ability to maintain fiscal policies and public debt at levels that do not compromise long-term economic stability.
- Public Expenditure: Government spending on goods, services, and investments.
- Fiscal Discipline: The practice of maintaining budgetary balance and controlling public spending.
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